柯马克（Mark Kruger），加拿大经济学家，现定居上海。现任一财全球评论版主编，一财研究院、加拿大国际治理创新中心（CIGI）和加拿大阿尔伯塔大学中国学院高级研究员。曾任加拿大央行国际部高级政策主任、国际货币基金组织（IMF）加拿大执行董事高级顾问、加拿大驻华大使馆财经处负责人。作为长期在中国生活并熟悉中国的经济学家，以及坚定的友华人士，马克以数据分析为驱动，通过过硬的专业水准向海外政商界决策人士讲述中国经济的发展模式及其背后的发展逻辑。
Mark Kruger is a Canadian economist now based in Shanghai. He is the Opinion Editor at Yicai Global. He holds Senior Fellow appointments at the Yicai Research Institute， the Centre for International Governance Innovation and University of Alberta’s China Institute. Previously， Mark was a Senior Policy Director in the Bank of Canada’s International Department， a Senior Advisor to the Canadian Executive Director at the IMF and head of the Economic and Financial Section in the Canadian Embassy in Beijing. Mark began his career at the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission. You can find Mark’s short， data-driven insights into China’s economy here: https://www.yicaiglobal.com/opinion/mark.kruger.
目錄：
CONTENTS
Part I Growth and Risk Over the Medium Term 1
How Fast Will China Grow Over the Next 15 Years 3
China’s Path to High-Income Status Lessons from Recent
Success Stories 11
Can China Be the Next South Korea 23
Beidou China’s First Outer Space Infrastructure Project 33
PBOC’s Virtual Renminbi Is Becoming a Reality 38
China’s High-Speed Rail A Case Study in Independent Innovation 46
5G and the Competition to Win the 21st Century 52
Is China’s Investment Really That Unproductive 58
How Sustainable Is China’s Debt 66
China Needs More Defaults and More Meaningful Credit Ratings 77
Is China Facing a Demographic Crisis 84
How Can China Promote a Sustainable Increase in Household
Consumption 94
Mooncake Madness 102
American Families Only Half as Rich as Those in Chinese Cities 107
How Should We Think About Rising Home Prices 113
Property Developers: Debt Taking Aim at the Grey Rhino 122
Why Not Eliminate Corporate Income Taxes 130
How Can China Achieve Carbon Neutrality By 2060 140
Part II Data and Analytic Techniques 149
China’s Economy The View From the IMF 151
Are Central Banks Behind the Curve on Inflation 159
Big Mac Prices — No Bull 170
Is the US Chip Export Ban Consistent With Its WTO Commitments 180
Can Robots Help Mitigate China’s Demographic Decline 188
The Demise of China’s Private Sector Greatly Exaggerated 201
Part III China and the Rest of the World 213
US Companies In China for the Long Haul 215
Will Japanese Firms Desert China 224
Shall the Twain Never Meet 232
The High Cost of US-China Decoupling 244
China’s Balance of Payments Show the Dual Circulation Strategy
at Work 250
How Long Will Foreign Investors’ Love Affair With Chinese Bonds
Last 261
Can China and the US Cooperate and Reform the WTO 271
Are the Worst in US-China Relations Behind Us 279
China and American Foreign Policy for the Middle Class 289
Part IV The Pandemic and the Chinese Government’s Response 295
Advice from VoxEu Act Fast and Do Whatever It Takes 297
How Will China Manage Massive Layoffs 303
Is China Decapitalizing Its Banks 309
Are the Chinese Banks Really Supporting the Recovery 317
COVID 19 Is Accelerating China-US Convergence 326
Trust in Chinese Government Defies Global Trend 332
Introduction
I have wrote the essays in this collection for Yicai Global since 2020. I intended them to explain developments in the Chinese economy to a foreign (nonChinese) audience. While Chinese economic news and statistics have become increasingly accessible over time， many foreign media outlets often fail to provide sufficient context for the most recent data point， leaving their readers illinformed. My goal was to write datadriven， pertinent and concise pieces that draw on Chinas recent economic history and the experiences of other countries.
Chinas economy has evolved very rapidly. Indeed， the country I encountered in 1985， when I moved from Calgary to Tianjin to study Mandarin would be unrecognizable today. China was still plagued by pervasive shortages. As a result， we needed ration tickets to buy household necessities like rice， flour and cloth. There were no privatelyowned cars and we got around on bicycles and incredibly crowded busses. Unlike Tianjin， Beijing had a subway system， but its two lines didnt actually connect. There were very few private restaurants and the stateowned establishments had filthy table cloths and wait staff that perhaps would， or perhaps would not， take notice of you. Shopping was a hit or miss experience and we were often told the goods we wanted were not in stock， sold out or that we should come back tomorrow. At that time， China still used two currencies. The renminbi was used for most domestic transactions. However， since foreign exchange was in short supply， imported goods and exportquality Chinese goods could only be acquired with Foreign Exchange Certificates.
Today， China has more than $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves， about twice Canadas GDP. I can shop for a mindboggling array of goods on my phone while riding Shanghais subway — the worlds most extensive — and have my purchases delivered to my front door. When I get hungry， I can dine on any cuisine I desire in restaurants where the food is delicious and the service is polite and attentive.
My training at the Bank of Canada taught me how important is to put context around numbers. Telling you that the debt of Chinas nonfinancial sector was RMB 274 trillion at the end of 2020 is practically meaningless. That number has to be scaled by GDP and then compared to the debttoGDP ratios of other countries before it begins to mean something. If we want to consider the sustainability of Chinas debt， we would have to look at its currency composition， its maturity profile and the nationality of the creditors in addition to its size relative to GDP.
The essays in this book are divided into four parts.
Those in Part Ⅰ look at the growth path implied by the Central Committees desire to have per capita GDP double by 2030. They stress the importance of innovation and productivity. They discuss Chinas successes in satellite technology， digital currency， highspeed rail and 5G communications. They then turn to the risks posed by stagnating productivity， the debt burden， demographic decline and the housing market.
In Part Ⅱ， the essays explain the frameworks central banks use to analyse economic developments. They also offer examples of how alternative data sources can enhance our understanding of the business cycle.
In Part Ⅲ， the essays discuss Chinas relationship with the rest of the world. While acknowledging the tensions， they stress the high costs of decoupling and the extent to which the foreign business community is in China for the long haul.
In Part Ⅳ， the essays describe how the pandemic affected Chinas economy and the role of government policy in limiting the fallout from COVID-19.
These essays try to be evidencebased and the points they make are supported with extensive reference to economic data. This book is designed to inform the interested layperson as well as the economic expert. I hope that by providing a clearer context for Chinas economic news， these essays can contribute to a deeper understanding of the countrys challenges and its policy choices.
It has been a privilege to write for Yicai Global. I would like to thank Yang Yanqing， Chen Juan and Xia Ruirui for their support and encouragement.
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